AAPL 6 month chart

Apple Inc. (AAPL) continues to be the main focus on everyone's screen as it continues to negatively correlate the major indexes.  As the major indexes make moves higher, AAPL continues to put in new lows.  AAPL has been in official bear territory as it now has lost 38% since putting in a high last September.  

Congratulations if you sold high 500+'s or you've been short, or maybe you're still short, but for the non-trader, you've probably doubled down or maybe even tripled down.  This is a classic example of "Catching a Falling Knife".  As great as AAPL is a company, it clearly has shown evidence of not being a positive performing stock the last 6 months.  I've personally never been a fan of this stock.  If you profile our last two previous major bubbles (ie. internet stocks in the late 90s, housing market, etc.) AAPL has a very close resemblance to those bubbles.  Here is my bubble checklist:

1)  Over owned (eg everyone and their mother owns some form of the product)
2)  One is willing to pay anything for (eg disregard to fundamentals)
3)  A sense of euphoria (eg "Best thing since slice bread.")

If you ask yourself these three bullet points on the previous two major bubbles, one can certainly answer them with ease.  Do these three bullet points sound like AAPL?

As a trade, the bearish pattern looks like it will stay intact for a bit.  Since it has negatively correlated the market as a whole, time will only tell to see if money goes into AAPL if the market starts to see some form of pull-in.  If this were to happen, AAPL would be considered as a defensive stock.  I don't know where AAPL is going, but it's on sale.  A close above $457.33 is the first step this stock needs to change direction in the eyes of the traders.

NFLX - 6 MONTH

Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) has been on a tear as it continues to make higher highs and moving in tandem with the major market indices.  Since gaping up at 140, NFLX has not looked back.  As shorts continue to get murdered since 100, trying to short NFLX could be a lost cause due to it's upward momentum.  Once it breaks the leg up that it's currently experiencing, one might initiate a short position with a target price of 140.  

ARMH - 6 month & All-Time

6 Month Chart:

All-Time Chart:

ARM Holdings plc (ARMH) is a dot com darling survivor.  Its recent action has put it at levels not seen since 2000.  ARMH is reaching Tier 2 Resistance level of $40.39  that could pose as a threat in the near terms to push the stock back to it's Trend Line as it's caught in forming a bullish pennant flag.  Being that the stock is a little rich here and is currently being overextended, the caution flag should go up and tight stops should be assessed.  Next Wednesday, January 14, is a big day as earning season kicks off.  

MCP - 6 month chart

Molycorp, Inc. (MCP) continues to be in every traders arsenal as it has seen a lot of technical action in the last 6 months.  MCP has been stuck in a bear trap 4 of the past 5 months as it's bear trend was finally technically broken on 26-November-2012 at $8.68.  

For the last month, MCP has seen a nice dead cat bounce off a bearish reversal with a nice Trend Line from $6.00 to $10.20.  A break below it's current trend line would signal a potential retest of $6.00 so buyer's here should have a tight stop.  

MCP has major resistance at $11.05 (ie. Tier 1.)  If MCP were to close above $11.05, the next major resistance would be $16.07 which would complete a gap that it has needed to fill since 2-August-2012.  

Currently, the basic materials sector and other industry related companies have seen recent significant pressure as fiscal cliff looms.  While most major stocks continue to rise in anticipation of a resolution, there is still a lot of 'lack of' confidence in the commodity space despite the fact that more money printing would be part of the resolution which would in effect would expand the money supply.

SBX - 6 month chart

A Chartcoach watcher requested SeaBright Holdings, Inc. (SBX).  SBX has been a dead trade since gapping up on 28-August-2012.  SBX still has a long ways down to fill the gap at $8.27 which was the previous close before the move up.

NSR - 6 month

NeuStar, Inc. (NSR) has been very bullish since hitting a low of $30.08 back in June.  With a trend line that was retested on 1-Nov-2012 at $37.47, it continues to be very bullish.  Yesterday, 11-December-2012, it managed to break resistance and set an all-time high of $42.62 before closing at $41.97.  The stock did not disappoint today either as it set another all-time high of $43.29 before closing down at $42.34.  With a market cap of 2.81B and an EPS of 1.98, the stock may have a lot more room to run.  

FCX - 6 month chart

Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (FCX) had serious technical damage today as it closed down 15.99% to finish the day off $6.12 points.  If we take a look at the previous 6 months, because the stock was up 35.71% from low to high, the charts may have warranted such a correction.  The first sign of danger was on 23-October-2012 when the stock closed at $38.98 when it broke it's trend line that begun on 25-July-2012.  Since breaking it's trend line, FCX came very near to retesting it's Tier 1 support line on 16-November-2012.  And much like it's retest of support line, today it came very close to it's Tier 2 Support line at $31.43.  Although FCX has some major repair coming it's way, FCX should be able to close the gap back to $38,28 especially under oversold conditions.

SPY - 2 year

SPDR S&P 500 (SPY), the State Street Global Advisors Electronically Traded Fund (ETF) that tracks the S&P 500 is the most widely used ETF index.  In looking at the last 2 years, we can see the 14 month bullish trendline was broken at $140.06.  It now is a potential free fall range to retest Tier 1 and possibly retest Tier 2.  So what does this mean?  

It means if one has an open position short, you stay short until you see how the SPY trades accordingly around the price of $125.28.  If the SPY manages to close below $125.28, then a test of Tier 2 level of $112.02 is probably imminent.  

On the opposite end of the spectrum, if one has an open position long, you may want to way the risk/reward ratio.  Locking in profits now or maybe taking a small stop loss position would free up cash to position oneself to rebuy at Tier 1.  

SPXS - 6 month chart

Direxion Daily S&P500 Bear 3X Shares (SPXS) broke it's downward trend on 26-September-2012 when it closed at $17.44.  It went almost a calendar month before it started to get a bid at $18.04.  By looking at Thursday's action (ie. 15-November-2012), it touched it's Tier 1 resistance point of $20.66.  A close above $20.66 would be needed before considering a retest of $26.04 from 4-June-2012.  

GOOD - 6 month

A ChartCoach follower requested an analysis on Gladstone Commercial Corporation (GOOD).  GOOD was in a bullish trend since 1-June; however, the support Trendline was broken on 19-October at $18.35.  The stock is broken and it should retest the $17.00 Tier 1 level in the near future.  $17.00 would be a target price to add more shares to your portfolio. Or lock in profits now and re-initiate a position at $17.00.  Or short sale at the current levels and if you believe it will retest $17.00, one can see if it can hold the Tier 1 level and see if it breaks further.

DIA - 1 year

As 2012 comes to an end, volatility in the equities should never be overlooked as investors, traders, and institutional holders prepare to take action to close the year end books.  Whether the investor is preparing for short-term capital gains/losses, the traders printing profits for their end of year bonuses, or even institutional holders positioning themselves for 2013, everyone has their own reason(s) for taking the action.  

Attached above is a 1 year of the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIA) which is an ETF (Electronic Traded Fund) of the major index.  Although it's probably not the best indicator of the US Economy anymore (eg. compared to S&P 500, etc.), media and headlines alike love to focus on the action of this Old Yeller basket of stocks.  Looking at the start of the support Trendline which was on 25-November-2011 and the DIA was 112.14 (ie. Dow Jones Index was 11.2k), we can see it's built a nice support line up until now.  On 1-June-2012, it retested the support Trendline at 120.78 (ie. Dow Jones Index 12.1k) and today it has retested the support Trendline again with a close at $112.53 (ie. Dow Jones index at 12.56k).  Todays action has signaled a 2nd retest of the support Trendline confirming a 'Double Bottom'.  If the DIA does close below $127.49, it would confirm a break in the support Trendline, confirming a bearish downtrend to Tier 1 and Tier 2 support lines.  As the world awaits the US response to the 'fiscal cliff', action in the DIA may already be a preview of how the US stock markets will respond to Washington's solution to the 'fiscal cliff'.

   

ZNGA 6 month

Zynga Inc. (ZNGA) has been in a very bearish trend for 6+ months.  The current price of $2.24 is awaiting confirmation of breaking the resistance trendline at $2.48.  If it does, it could retest the Tier 1 price point of $3.28 and fill the gap all the way to $5.07 (see blue arrow.)  

COF 6 month

Capital One Financial Corp. (COF) continues to exert strength in the financials as it continues to make higher highs.  COF continues to be a strong player behind juggernaut JPM, which is still looking to break it's 52-week high established back in late March of this year.  

A break below the support TrendLine of $57.38 would signal a break in it's bullish pattern and should trigger a possible stop loss.  If and when that was to occur, it would be an opportunity to reevaluate the charts technicals.

AAPL 6 month

This is a brief alert on Apple Inc. (AAPL), there was major technical damage on Friday 19-October-2012.  Congratulations if you put that stop at 660 on AAPL If you took notice on my 2-September-2012 posting.  It looks like it's going to retest the 600 mark; however, taking a closer look,it broke through Tier 1 support of $622.57 on 1.6x volume.  The other technical damage was that the bullish Trendline uptrend since mid-May has been violated.  The prudent trader would probably sell on any upticks and look to re-position themselves at either Tier 2 support of $567.71.  

GFI 6 month chart.

Gold Fields Ltd. (GFI) reference points:

1)  Support Trend Line:  $11.75

2)  Resistance at $13.25.

3)  Bearish pattern of lower highs:  $14.06 --> 13.93 --> 13.54

AMZN 6 month Chart

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) reference points:

Support Trend Line: $240.83.

Short Tier 1 (if there is a close below trend line):  $232.25

Short Tier 2 (and "Fill The Gap"):  $196.00

ARUN 6 month chart

2 month upward trend of Aruba Networks, Inc. (ARUN) was broken on 20-September-2012.  This stock looks like a short to fill the gap.

PNR 6 month chart

Pentair, Inc. (PNR) looks like it's starting to receive some resistance at mid-40s.  Although very minimal in terms of cents, looks like a series of lower succession highs on 30-July, 21-August, and 28-September.  

10 oz Gold Bar Fraud

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/tungsten-filled-10-oz-gold-bar-found-middle-manhattans-jewelry-district

This story reinforces why one must buy from a reputable dealer.  The only problem in this case was that it was a legitimate bar, it just was altered.  This might further increase the demand for small coins or just smaller bars (ie. 1 oz, etc.) since it would be a little harder to manipulate them based on weight alone.

QE 3...um I mean QE~

The Fed officially put what might be the last nail in the coffin in sealing the US Dollar's fate by allowing itself to continuously print money until the economy gets back into satisfactory or compelling economic feasible levels.  The part I do not understand is how they're doing it.  They are again supporting and inflating the housing market by buying mortgage back securities in the hopes that US Citizens will be more wealthier on paper with their real estate assets and in turn take the equity they have in their homes and spend it in the market.  With the anticipation of appreciating real estate prices, home builders and real estate investors will once again come into the market buying up whatever they can.  Really?  Did we not learn anything in history on the latest housing bubble just 5 years ago?  That's very well a reason why history continues to repeat itself, since we keep making the same mistakes over and over.  Throwing good money at bad is never a good thing.

So if you're a homeowner and want to stay in your home, you'll be able to refinance that 30 year mortgage at historical low prices until you retire (or if you are retired, until you depart this life.)